by Elaine Durbach
NJJN Bureau Chief/Central

September 16, 2009

Ingrid Reed believes voters choosing between incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, in the November gubernatorial election are in a very different mood than they were last November.

The economy is bound to factor in the election, as will ethics. But the key might be which voters and how many of them will go to the polls.

In an interview last week with NJ Jewish News, Reed, who directs the New Jersey Project, an initiative of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, said the big question is how voters are viewing all politicians, and whether the enthusiasm for voting that led to a greater-than-normal voter turnout last November can be repeated or even approached.

“Are they saying, ‘Kick the guys out,’ and do they care?” she said.

There is more at stake, she pointed out, than just who occupies Drumthwacket, the governor’s residence in Princeton. Seats in the New Jersey State Assembly are up for grabs as well, and, she said, she wants voters to be mindful of their power to shape future policy.

Reed will discuss current political dynamics on Thursday, Sept. 24, at the YM-YWHA of Union County. The event is hosted by the National Council of Jewish Women Union County Section.

The project Reed leads aims to increase voter awareness and turnout. It runs programs on campaign, election, and ethics reform; on governance issues; and on factors affecting citizen participation.

Reed has also directed studies on media coverage of campaigns. She is often interviewed on local politics by state, national, and international media, and she has written op-ed columns for major NJ newspapers.

In 2008, there was a 73 percent turnout in New Jersey for the presidential election, Reed said, the same as for 2004. “We think that what we saw was voters taking it into their own hands to encourage other voters to go to the polls,” she said. “We’re optimistic because people have been much more engaged.”

But turnout is likely to be lower for this race. She pointed out that in the last two elections for governor, it was less than 50 percent. “With low turnout, you tend to get more senior voters, who’re affiliated with the political parties,” she told NJJN.

On the other hand, there are 500,000 new voters on the roles, bringing the total up to 5,200,000, and the voter rolls have been cleaned up to remove mistakes and fraud.

“Choosing our politicians is the heart of democracy,” Reed said.

There are many things we don’t know, Reed said; for example, “Is New Jersey still a blue state?” She said that more people were identifying themselves as independents or as having a leaning toward the Republican Party.

That was borne out by figures released earlier this week. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll of 752 NJ registered voters, conducted between Sept. 8 and 10, showed that among likely independent voters, Christie is running 15 points ahead of Corzine. Christie leads among Republicans 82 to 8 percent, while Corzine leads among Democrats 77 to 8 percent — a 10-point improvement since the summer. Corzine has increased his support among black and Hispanic voters.

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