JustASC

Politico does a post-mortem on the Jewish vote for Obama, and joins those who now say Obama’s “Jewish problem” “was hardly as bad as the coverage it received.”

And yet the article suggests his Jewish problem was almost exactly as bad as the coverage it received — if you agree that no one thought seriously that Obama would earn less than 60 percent of the vote (Carter country) and no more than 85. The question all along was how he’d perform among the Jewish swing vote.

And sure enough:

Obama did improve about 15 points with Jews during the general election, as his person and positions became better known, the Democratic primary divide mended, the economy took central stage and McCain came to be seen as less moderate, a trend that Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, an authority on researching the Jewish vote, believes was worsened when McCain tapped social conservative Sarah Palin as his running mate.

And that 15 percent is exactly the differnce between the dreaded 60-40 (dreaded by the National Jewish Democratic Council) and the eventual 3-1 vote that has sent the Republican Jewish Coalition back to the old drawing board. 

So how did Obama hold onto the wavering 15 percent?

Obama’s rise in Jewish support tracked loosely with his gains among Democrats and independents overall. Between summer and autumn, Democratic support for Obama moved from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Over that same period, Independents as a group moved from leaning to McCain to splitting their support between the two candidates.

Part of Obama’s initial under performance with Jewish voters also came from Hillary Clinton supporters, many of whomwere slow to retun to the party after her loss. Before the Democratic Convention, just 70 percent of Clinton voters backed Obama. By September, that had gone up to to 81 percent.

As he did with other blocs that leaned toward Clinton, Obama came up with a specific strategy to court wayward Jews.

In spring, Obama spoke at synagogue in Boca Raton, Fla., in large part to alleviate any perceived concerns and face down rumors about his stance on Israel. Obama also spoke to prominent Jewish reporters, like Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic, hoping to permeate the Jewish zeitgeist. He had staff charged with Jewish outreach, and specifically focused on refuting a viral email campaign that falsely painted Obama as a Muslim and/or anti-Israel.