SubscribeWeathermen and sports prognosticators
These are about the only two professions were you can be so wrong, so often and still stay employed.
So I went back to my collection of the annual baseball magazines that came out prior to opening day. Only national publications (i.e., no newspapers that might show favoritism for the home team): Baseball America, USA Today Sports Weekly, Sports Illustrated, ESPN the Magazine, Athlon, Lindy’s, The Sporting News (which took over my old pals, Street and Smith), and Beckett.
Ah, youth. So full or promise and optimism. And ultimately, so wrong.
I did a non-scientific study of their predictions for the final standings. (Some offered postseason matchups, others didn’t so I didn’t include any here).
What did they all get right? The Angels, picked by all for first in the AL West, and the Nationals and Pirates, similarly picked for last place in their respective divisions.
Another item of note: Lindy’s and Beckett ran the table in their predictions of the AL East. But overall these publications, relying on experts in the field, probably did no better (and perhaps worse) than most educated fans? Granted, you can never tell when injuries will decimate a team, as in the Mets’ case, although I bet some stat-head has considered an “injury factor” as a project).
According to my calculations — and remember, I’m a writer, Jim, not a mathematician — of the eight magazines, only two — The Sporting News and Lindy’s — were correct more than half the time, while three — Baseball America, ESPN, and Sports Weekly — accurately predicted at 40 percent or less.
As far as the weather goes: light today, strong possibility of darkness at night.
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