by Robert Wiener
NJJN Staff Writer

May 21, 2009

Buoyed by Gov. Jon Corzine’s sagging popularity, some prominent Jewish Republicans are hopeful that the GOP can recapture the governorship in November.

But opinions are split on the question of who would make a better challenger — former federal prosecutor Christopher Christie or the former mayor of Bogota, Steve Lonegan.

The two are squaring off in the June 2 primary and present a sharp contrast: Christie, a popular crime buster who is seen as appealing to independent voters, and Lonegan, a tax-reform crusader who calls himself a “real conservative Republican.”

Sharon Beck, who lives in Teaneck, one town over from Bogota, calls herself an ardent Republican and believes Lonegan best represents her interests as a Jewish voter.

“Steve has been working for New Jersey taxpayers for years, and he is very supportive of school vouchers,” she said. “That is something many Jews care about.”

Steve Klinghoffer, a Short Hills publisher and Christie supporter, believes the former United States attorney “makes the most sense and has the potential for being a good governor.”

A May 14 telephone survey by Rasmussen Reports shows that if Christie ran against Corzine, the challenger would beat the incumbent 47-38. But in a race against Lonegan, Corzine would trail by only one percentage point, 42 to 41, a statistical dead heat.

In either case, at this point, Corzine appears to be an underdog.

“The economy is killing Corzine’s approval rating so much that he is vulnerable not only to a strong challenger such as Christie but to a lesser-known Republican such as Lonegan,” said Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute.

Stanley Berenzweig of Wyckoff, who describes himself as a conservative Republican and a Lonegan supporter, is unconcerned with the numbers.

“I’m hoping Lonegan can beat Corzine,” Berenzweig said. Regarding the Quinnipiac survey, he said, “The polls were wrong about Ronald Reagan, too.”

For the Republicans, at least, the primary is shaping up as a contest between the party’s conservative wing, on one hand, and moderates and independents on the other.

Because of the governor’s vulnerability, Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University in Lawrenceville, sees national implications in the primary and the general election. After losing the White House and many seats in Congress last November, the GOP may look to New Jersey for signs of a comeback.

“In an election year when Virginia and New Jersey are the only states with statewide gubernatorial elections, there will be national significance thrust upon this race as if it is a referendum on the Obama administration,” said Dworkin. “Where it will make an impact will be not on Obama’s Middle East policies but on his policies on the economy. That is the dominant issue for most voters. So long as Obama retains his high approval ratings, it helps Corzine.”

Many Democrats, meanwhile, are quietly hoping for Christie’s defeat in the primary, under the assumption that Lonegan’s conservatism — he calls himself “100 percent pro-life,” proposes a flat tax plan, and bluntly attacks Christie from the right — will make him less appealing to independents in the general election.

“Christie, in an effort to improve his conservative bona fides, is talking about his strong pro-life stand, which might help in the primary,” explained Dworkin. “But by talking about his strong pro-life stand, Christie ends up hurting himself in the general election, at least with the Jewish community, because so many of them are strongly pro-choice. New Jersey still has a strong Democratic Party advantage, and in an election that could be decided by 25,000 votes, an issue like abortion rights can actually make a difference.”

But, Dworkin added promptly, “This is not to say that Corzine can’t lose. In a close election, every identifiable group matters — and Jews vote. But nothing indicates that Corzine is losing lots of Jewish support.”

Greg Menkin, who directs operations for the Republican Jewish Coalition in northern and central New Jersey, is working to attract more Jewish voters to the GOP. His organization does not generally take sides in primary fights. But from the sidelines, he found it “tough to say” whether Jewish Republican voters are more inclined to vote for Christie or Lonegan.

Menkin told NJJN he did not have “a sense of where the Republic Jewish community is leaning in this primary. It’s a state race, and it does not involve Israel or Iran. So it’s really bread-and-butter issues.”

Alan Steinberg, a West Orange lawyer who served as an administrator at the Environmental Protection Agency under former President George W. Bush, is supporting Christie, although he is not connected to the campaign.

“Christie was an outstanding U.S. attorney,” said Steinberg. “He is a person of very good judgment. The main factor you are seeking in a leader is the ability to make good judgments.”

Steinberg said he fears that many fellow Jews vote reflexively for Democrats.

“When I talk to Jewish Republicans and Republicans in general, I get a feeling of futility about the Jewish community,” said Steinberg, who blogs at www.politickernj.com. “They see Jews as so dedicated to the Democratic Party — except for the Orthodox — that many Republicans feel it is futile to make an effort with the Jewish community. I think that is very unfortunate.”

For Corzine supporters, the polls are only snapshots.

“I know that Corzine is behind in the polls,” said Democratic Essex County Freeholder Pat Sebold, a Livingston resident long active in the Jewish community. “But I have not lost confidence that he will do a good job and win in November.

“I can understand that the GOP will be really happy if they win, given the situation for them now. However, I think the last Republican governor, Christine Todd Whitman, did us no favor and then certainly didn’t help working for the federal government. I’m very optimistic for the Democrats. The Democrats deserve a victory.”

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