by Dr. Gilbert N. Kahn

May 29, 2008

As they prepare to end their political careers, both President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appear to have become politically delusional.

The president, enduring the lowest public support of almost any sitting president, continues to assert that he believes that before Jan. 20, 2009, he can bring the Israelis and the Palestinians to reach final terms for a peace treaty. For his part, Olmert, moored in legal scandals that could bring about his resignation, has determined that this is the opportune moment to proceed with serious negotiations with the Syrians on the terms of a comprehensive peace treaty.

In addition to the sorry state of their own political affairs, neither Bush nor Olmert’s so-called “peace partners” can deliver. The Palestinians will never succeed in completing a final arrangement with the Israelis without the participation of Hamas, something unacceptable to the United States. Similarly, as was evident in the outrage expressed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syria’s Iranian patron and bankroller does not appear to be ready to sanction a peace treaty with Israel.

For American presidents, it is curious how in the twilight of their career, they actually believe that they can achieve results in solving world problems where they totally had failed — or which they even totally ignored — during their entire tenure in office. What is it about the Middle East in particular that makes leaders who have so little political clout believe that they will be able to suddenly solve one of the world’s most intractable conflicts?

All leaders assume they can do better addressing international problems than domestic issues, will suffer less criticism from the public in dealing with foreign matters, and will be granted greater latitude by their critics because they are operating away from home. Many leaders also believe that a diplomatic breakthrough might actually permit them to restore their place in history.

Lyndon Johnson, during his last nine months in office, believed he could resolve the Vietnam War after announcing that he would not seek reelection. Richard Nixon, as the Watergate scandal was unraveling around him, undertook a grand tour, which included a whistle-stop in the Middle East. Bill Clinton, having emerged from his impeachment trial and using the 2000 election year as a distraction, poured enormous amounts of energy into the Camp David meetings in July. These efforts continued into the very waning days of his administration in late 2000 in Washington with the pre-Taba talks.

Bush appears to have taken this charade to an even more outrageous level. The government in Lebanon is disintegrating in front of his eyes from the pressure exerted by Hizbullah; meanwhile, the president praises the end of factional fighting. The Saudis treat U.S. entreaties for additional oil production by publicly mocking Bush as a petulant child seeking another piece of chocolate. While Iran continues to move ahead to develop nuclear weapons, Bush mouths platitudes about a united front that is considering greater inspection options and/or sanctions.

For Olmert, making peace with Syria is indeed a domestic issue as well as a national security matter. The embattled prime minister is trying to deflect public attention from his own personal political situation. Olmert appears determined to carry on the affairs of state — including peacemaking with Israel’s enemies — as if the legal noose isn’t tightening. While asserting that he will step down if indicted, Olmert has entered some of the most sensitive security talks in years, not only with Syria but also indirectly with Hamas, and through Syria with Hizbullah.

Bush’s initiatives will fail, but a friend of Israel will succeed him, regardless of the winner in November. Olmert’s tenure in office will most likely end before the scheduled election in March 2010. Most of his potential successors are either damaged goods, political novices, or untrained politicians. Despite the current flurry of activity, no progress is likely on the peace front for at least another year.

Dr. Gilbert N. Kahn is a professor of political science at Kean University in Union.

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