by Lori Silberman Brauner
NJJN Staff Writer

June 4, 2009

Meir Javedanfar, a specialist in Israeli-Iranian relations, will serve as special guest lecturer at Congregation Etz Chaim in Livingston Saturday-Sunday, June 6-7.

Raised in Iran during the revolutionary period, Javedanfar and his family left for England, where he obtained advanced degrees in international relations. He later made aliya and founded the Israel-based think tank and consulting firm MEEPAS.

He is the coauthor of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran, the first book by independent analysts on the life of Iran’s president.

Javedanfar will speak to the congregation on Shabbat and discuss Are We Heading for Nuclear Armageddon? in a talk on Sunday morning.

NJJN spoke with Javedanfar May 27 from his home in Tel Aviv.

NJJN: How do you view Barack Obama’s engagement policy with Iran?

Meir Javedanfar: I think it is very positive. I think the fact that he’s engaging the government in Iran could lead to a reduction in tension between Iran and the United States, at a minimum. And if America could solve the Iranian nuclear issue, that would be in the best interest of Israel and the United States.

NJJN: What do you think is going to happen in the June 12 presidential elections in Iran?

MJ: For now, it looks like Ahmadinejad could be the winner because of the structured support given to him by the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khameini], and also judging by Khameini’s remarks that the people should not vote for someone who appeases the West…chances for the Reformists do not look good.

[And yet] Iranian policy is full of surprises, and if the people in Iran turn up in great numbers and vote for the Reformists, then President Ahmadinejad could lose.

NJJN: If he does lose, does that make a difference with the regime’s policy, since Khameini really has so much of the power?

MJ: If he loses, Iran’s image would change and its posturing toward Israel could also change — we could see an end to statements denying the Holocaust and calling for Israel’s elimination.

Furthermore, the choice of president reflects the direction which the supreme leader wants to take the country in the next four years…. Therefore, if Ahmadinejad is elected, it could be taken as a sign that Iran will not be very flexible. If the Reformists are elected, it is a sign that Iran is taking the minimum confidence-building measures…at best, over the nuclear program.

NJJN: What are Israel’s options in dealing with a nuclear-armed Iran?

MJ: I think Israel would be able to survive and to thrive, although it will be in a more tense atmosphere. The Iranian leadership is not suicidal [nor are] the people who control the nuclear program…. They know, as [Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton said, ‘They will be obliterated.’

The scaremongering that says a nuclear Iran should be the end of Israel should stop. It’s damaging to Israel and it boosts the extremists in Iran. It makes them look far stronger than they are.

NJJN: What do you think about advocacy of American Jews on this whole issue?

MJ: I think Jewish organizations should back President Obama to approach Iran and to try to resolve this matter in a peaceful way, because any calls for war or sanctions before negotiations have started or ended gives an excuse to the extremists in Iran that America is not sincere and America is under the control of Jewish groups.

NJJN: So the idea is not to play into their hands, not to give them the publicity that they want?

MJ: In reality, the negotiations could fail. There is a very high chance. Iran is not going to give up its nuclear program. It will be looking for excuses to blame the United States…. Let’s not give them any.

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