August 7, 2008
Now that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has made official what everyone knew was coming — that he will step down after his Kadima Party holds primary elections on Sept. 17 and selects a new party head — the Israeli political system must work its way through the crisis.
In addition to the obvious geopolitical and regional issues that will remain on the table through the next several months, at least, this affair will have effects far beyond Israel. It may affect President George Bush’s legacy and may well influence the American presidential election campaign.
Force new elections — or let the other side make its mistakes?
The first matter to consider is timing. Regardless of the outcome of the Kadima Party elections, they precede the High Holy Days by less than two weeks. Nothing happens in Israel during the hagim. Even if Olmert’s successor can quickly cobble together a viable coalition, there will be no major political activity in Israel until the end of October.
Under Israeli law, the new party leader will have up to six weeks to form a new government. Failing that — or some other party’s achieving a viable coalition — general elections must be held within three months. Under this scenario, there is a real possibility that Olmert could remain in office until January or February.
Under Israeli law, general elections must be held no later than the spring of 2010. It can’t be known now what Kadima and the other major parties, Labor and Likud, will regard as the most opportune time to hold or force elections. Will it be better for Kadima and/or the opposition to postpone elections for as long as possible and build up public support? Or will it be more advantageous to exploit the political moment and hold elections immediately? Much of this will depend on whether the new Kadima leader believes that demonstrating his or her ability to lead will be more advantageous than launching an election campaign without having yet made any mistakes that he or she can personally be held accountable for.
Kadima’s challenge is to choose a new leader without engaging in an extended and ugly bloodbath. If Kadima fails to move quickly and effectively to select a new party leader from among Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz, or an as-yet-unnamed third option — with the winner moving quickly to solidify a governing coalition — the likelihood of speedy, new elections will be dramatically increased.
The opposition, especially Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, may believe that the moment is now to run against a tarnished Kadima. He may sense that he has far more political clout now than he will in several months or a year from now. Calling for or forcing elections now, then, may well be in his favor.
The Labor Party has become the weak, almost forgotten arm of Israeli politics. Ehud Barak appears destined to lead his party into the next election. For Labor, more time will probably help them continue their rebuilding effort, so they may be quick to join a Kadima-led coalition. To date, Barak has not had much success reestablishing a large tent to bring in some of Labor’s old partners and thus strengthen the party.
The smaller parties also have to weigh their choices as to whether they will have more or less leverage in a renewed version — with a new prime minister — of the current coalition or whether they stand to gain seats and thus power with a new election. Especially critical will be the decisions made by the religious Shas Party, which could probably singlehandedly force a new election.
In the background but hardly forgotten are the ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israel and Syria. Undoubtedly these discussions will continue, but despite the genuine interests of Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, it is virtually guaranteed that no agreements will be produced or even reached until a new coalition or government is in place.
Perhaps most important on the international level is how all this political jockeying will affect the 10,000-pound elephant in the room: Iran. All Israeli leaders and the Israeli people know that planning for any possible military initiative — as well as supporting international diplomatic efforts — will continue and will not be affected by the ongoing political gamesmanship that will be transpiring on the home stage. It is an unwritten law of Israeli politics that defense, security, and military exigencies transcend political dalliances.
It seems most remarkable that at moments like this, events occurring in a small democracy of fewer than eight million citizens can have such extraordinary impact on so many people in so many places.
Dr. Gilbert N. Kahn is a professor of political science at Kean University in Union (e-mail gkahn@kean.edu).
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