October 23, 2008
Otto Von Bismarck famously said there are two things you should never watch being made: sausage and legislation. You can add one more item to that list: an Israeli coalition.
That’s what is going on now in Israel, and it ain’t pretty. Newly elected Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni hopes to form a government by Oct. 27. If she succeeds, Israel will probably be the first Western democracy to have a prime minister, speaker of parliament, and chief justice who are all women: Livni, Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik, and Chief Justice Dorit Beinisch.
Crafting an Israeli coalition is like making sausage but messier; it might more appropriately be called “Let’s Make A Deal.”
Sometimes it can get bizarre. One year a top leader of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee was busy shuttling between leaders of Labor and Likud in Jerusalem, telling people he was negotiating a coalition agreement and that he was writing the new government’s manifesto. Privately the Israeli leaders were laughing at him while publicly humoring the Midwestern millionaire because they coveted his money and needed his organization.
Another time a small party with two Knesset seats traded both of them for an ambassadorship for the party leader and then merged with the prime minister’s party.
American cabinet officers serve at the pleasure of the president and often can be marginalized on important decisions involving their own agencies, as White House aides make the policies. Remember Colin Powell and the Iraq war?
In Israel each minister may be an independent political player, often a leader of another party whose support is needed to get beyond the 61 votes needed to form a government. Kadima has 29, so the rest must come from other parties, and enough that no single party can bring down the government if it doesn’t get its way.
Likud says it won’t join the coalition and wants new elections; Labor was first to make a deal with Livni after threatening to go to the voters. That was a negotiating bluff because polls show while Likud could win an election if it were held today, Labor would be lucky to come in third.
The key to the new government is the fervently Orthodox Sephardi party Shas, with 12 seats, the same as the opposition Likud. It is known as the extortionist party for good reason. Its votes are for sale to the highest bidder, and once bought it doesn’t stay bought but keeps trying to up the ante.
It is willing to form a government with any prime minister prepared to meet its price, which this time around is estimated to be in excess of $260 million (one billion shekels) for its institutions and followers. Livni’s promises to Labor and other parties are expected to cost about the same.
Shas is demanding child allowances and other benefits for young, fervently religious families (often with many children and fathers who do not work but study in yeshiva) and no talks with the Palestinians about Jerusalem. The political issues can be finessed; what really matters is money and power.
“If Livni wants a government, she needs to comply with our demands,” declared Shas chair Eli Yishai. His predecessor went to prison for doing too good a job taking care of the party and its followers.
Livni will largely give in on Shas’ financial demands despite the spreading global economic crisis and promise not to negotiate the borders or Jerusalem. The latter should be easy since talks with the Palestinians are behind closed doors and amazingly free of leaks, and no one really knows what, if anything, is going on, and any deal is a long way off as long as Hamas owns Gaza and threatens the West Bank. She can tell the Right that nothing has been decided and assure the Left that she’s working overtime to produce a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, Shas leaders are also negotiating with Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu to see if they can get a better deal by forcing new elections. He is promising if they help get him elected they won’t have to worry about any talks with the Palestinians over Jerusalem or much else because he’s not interested in creating a Palestinian state anytime soon.
Shas may be the most brazen political extortionist, but it is not unique. All the junior partners have disproportionate power and use it to gain control of ministries important to their agendas, like the Pensioners’ Party, the religious parties, the nationalist or settler parties. Israeli leaders have never been shy about creating new ministries if that’s what it takes to buy the votes of fickle allies. It’s all about money and power — a voice in policy, jobs for supporters, their own fiefdoms, chauffeur-driven sedans, expense accounts, and taxpayer-paid shopping trips to the United States.
Fear is a powerful motivator. Incumbents don’t seem anxious to face voters, who could turn them out of office, taking away all their power and perks. Some parties might shrink or even disappear. That prospect improves Livni’s chances for becoming Israel’s second female prime minister.
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a political analyst based in Washington, DC.
Comment: comments@njjewishnews.com
